Across today’s refugee regime, what counts as credible governance is often less about effective protection and more about performing responsibility. This seminar introduces the idea of credible fictions: carefully curated displays through which states signal humanitarian strain, administrative capacity, and policy compliance in order to secure leverage, legitimacy, or resources.

Drawing on cases from the Middle East and beyond, Gerasimos unpacks three recurrent techniques: illusions of scale (inflated numbers that magnify geopolitical relevance); performative enforcement (symbolic gestures of control that placate external audiences); and staged compliance (policy metrics curated to imply progress without reform). Rather than asking whether these performances are true or false, the analysis focuses on how credibility is produced, why it matters diplomatically, and how international organisations are often drawn into sustaining these narratives.