Sub-National COVID-19 Incidence and Determinants Dataset

About

The spread and severity of COVID-19 varied widely across different regions, shaped by factors such as air travel, government responses, and local demographics. The Sub-National COVID-19 Incidence and Determinants Dataset offers a rich resource for analysing these dynamics.

The dataset contains data on 503 sub-national areas across 46 countries and five continents, tracking both health outcomes (cases and deaths) and factors influencing the spread of the virus throughout 2020. It provides critical insights into how regional factors shaped the pandemic’s trajectory. Policymakers, researchers, and public health professionals can use this data to analyze the effectiveness of interventions, identify vulnerabilities, and plan for future health crises.

What it includes 

This dataset was compiled to study how factors such as international air travel influenced the early spread and severity of the pandemic. Data was collected weekly (with some monthly and yearly indicators) across four key areas:

1. Health Outcomes: COVID-19 cases and deaths
2. International Air Travel: Number of incoming air passengers; Centrality of local airports in the global airline network; Air travel restriction policies
3. Population Mixing and Government Policies: Local measures such as lockdowns and social distancing
4. Pre-Pandemic Area Characteristics: Socioeconomic and demographic factors; Public health infrastructure; Prevalence of co-morbidities

Key Findings

Research using this dataset highlights important insights about the role of air travel in the spread of COVID-19:

Air Travel as a “Spark”: Regions without airports or those enforcing total travel bans experienced significantly fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths. However, once travel did occur, the severity of outbreaks was influenced more by local demographic and public health factors than by the volume of air passengers or the connectivity of airports.

Diminishing Impact Over Time: While regions with higher passenger volumes initially saw more severe outbreaks, the correlation weakened as the pandemic progressed. The data suggests that early containment strategies, population characteristics, and healthcare capacity played a larger role in shaping long-term outcomes.