The limits of counting: What Europe misses about African mobility

European migration debates have become fixated on one metric: reducing the number of people arriving. Success is routinely declared when border crossings fall, visa rejections rise, or asylum applications drop. These figures are circulated as proof that policies are “working.” But numbers alone cannot explain why people move, how they navigate increasingly restrictive systems, or what happens to them along the way. When policymakers rely on statistics without understanding the realities behind them, they risk misdiagnosing the problem and doubling down on ineffective—or even harmful—approaches.

This is precisely why African migration research matters. That is, research on migration in and from Africa, in particular by Africa-based scholars. Such research reveals the dynamics that numbers obscure, challenges the assumptions that shape European policy-making, and brings into focus the lived experiences of people whose mobility is far more complex than any numbers can capture.

Numbers do not tell the whole story

We need to ask ourselves: what numbers are we looking at? At the numbers that tell us that the legal pathways to Europe have steadily decreased in the last two decades? Or that 30% of African applicants have their (non-refundable) Schengen visa rejected, far above the global average of 17.5% rejection?

Whether numbers rise or fall at the border does not tell the whole story. These statistics, and the persistent tendency with counting, capture the ‘official’ situation at Europe’s borders (or extended borders), but not the complex processes that lead people to move in the first place. By focusing almost exclusively on arrival figures and the number of asylum applications, policymakers risk looking at the wrong indicators and drawing the wrong conclusions about why people move, how they move, and under what conditions they do so. Measures designed to reduce arrivals may simply reroute migration, increase reliance on smugglers or push people into more dangerous journeys. These aspects are usually invisible if the success is measured only by numbers.

Relatedly, important research on migration in Africa is not visible enough, due to a variety of factors related to inequalities in knowledge production, who is listened to, and what policymakers see as “important”.

What African migration research tells us about migration patterns

A large percentage of African migration, estimated at around 80% of all African mobility, takes place within the continent, not towards Europe as often assumed. According to the latest figures, only 15% of the global migration population is from Africa, far below European (20%) or Asian migrants (40%). People move for work, education, family reasons, trade, fleeing conflicts etc., and sometimes a mix of all these. These movements often occur in patterns that are circular, temporary or seasonal.

African migration research, that is research that explicitly focuses on migration in and from Africa (like those included in this list on Africa-based scholars and literature), shows that migration is not simply a response to poverty or instability, and cannot be ‘switched off’ through border enforcement. Instead, states and people in Africa see mobility as a normal and often positive part of social and economic life. Our own research on mobility in Africa also highlights that two things can be true at the same time: borders can be strengthened, with new walls or increased controls, but people also continue to move. Put another way, borders can both secure and facilitate movement.

Ignoring these dynamics leads to overestimating the power of deterrence in policies and underestimating the aspirations, resilience and adaptability of people on the move.

Why African research on mobility and migration matters

• African migration research matters in and of itself. African mobility deserves to be understood on its own terms, not only as it affects Europe. Treating African migration solely as a ‘problem’ for Europe reinforces narrow, security-driven perspectives and sidelines the voices and experiences of African migrants and communities. In fact, the reception, long-term prospects and lives of migrants in their new homes continue to be one of the most pressing socio-political issues of our times. Understanding the experience of African migrants is fundamental to better understanding a global experience of migration, which is something a new project on the political lives of migrants in Africa aims to do.
• African migration research helps refocus the discussion on rights. When policy debates are dominated by control and deterrence, issues such as human dignity, protection and labour rights are often sidelined. A deeper understanding of mobility highlights migrants not just as numbers, but as workers, family members and rights holders. There is a lot of potential in looking to our neighbouring continent, to learn about solidarity, cultures of welcoming and hosting some of the biggest refugee communities, as brothers and sisters in need of protection, and deserving of dignity.
• States in Africa also have difficult migration policy issues and challenges around xenophobia and discrimination. This happens in a very particular historical context, which affects how migrants are treated to this day. Yet, this is also a global history, and as we see in our fast-changing world, it is time to acknowledge how a past of colonialism affects us all. That is, if we want new answers.
• Taking African migration research seriously offers new ways of thinking about migration governance. By recognising mobility as a structural and global phenomenon that conditions who can move in what ways, policymakers can move beyond crisis-driven responses and explore approaches that combine mobility, development and protection more coherently.

Better understanding means better policies

Doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different result is a recipe for failure. Europe’s migration governance crisis is not, at its core, a crisis of numbers—it is a crisis of understanding. Focusing on arrivals, rejections, or border crossings obscures the deeper dynamics that shape mobility. African migration research offers the contextual knowledge needed to move beyond reactive, numbers‑driven policymaking and toward approaches that are genuinely effective.

What counts as the “best” policy will always depend on political priorities, but one point is increasingly undeniable: migration’s complexity cannot be grasped without engaging perspectives from the Global South. Southern scholars, communities and migrants themselves hold insights that are essential for designing policies that reflect reality rather than assumptions.